Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.207171 0.232855 0.260634 0.292935 0.329493 0.369625 0.417069
2025-11-23 0.164499 0.197779 0.236388 0.284587 0.343287 0.412628 0.501016
2025-11-30 0.139922 0.178660 0.226519 0.290224 0.373151 0.477924 0.621096
2025-12-07 0.114621 0.154467 0.206562 0.280057 0.381724 0.518345 0.717451
2025-12-14 0.096851 0.137147 0.192646 0.275279 0.396247 0.568489 0.835245
2025-12-21 0.082774 0.122660 0.180292 0.270486 0.409669 0.618872 0.961970
2025-12-28 0.074304 0.114912 0.176295 0.277009 0.440427 0.699127 1.147488
2026-01-04 0.065324 0.105034 0.167591 0.274786 0.456973 0.759603 1.311858
2026-01-11 0.058668 0.097850 0.162023 0.276607 0.480135 0.834130 1.512965
2026-01-18 0.053627 0.092592 0.158807 0.281759 0.509560 0.923670 1.756746
2026-01-25 0.046794 0.083327 0.147489 0.270889 0.508376 0.957701 1.901870
2026-02-01 0.040885 0.074929 0.136588 0.259146 0.503599 0.983899 2.035769
2026-02-08 0.036471 0.068849 0.129381 0.253875 0.511594 1.038307 2.242938
2026-02-15 0.032509 0.063123 0.122116 0.247472 0.516406 1.087322 2.449074
2026-02-22 0.030331 0.060601 0.120752 0.252898 0.546951 1.196040 2.812892
2026-03-01 0.027032 0.055403 0.113346 0.244495 0.546069 1.235612 3.022097
2026-03-08 0.024560 0.051607 0.108354 0.240626 0.554815 1.298729 3.303056
2026-03-15 0.022372 0.048143 0.103627 0.236658 0.562691 1.361163 3.595919
2026-03-22 0.021188 0.046720 0.103159 0.242461 0.595046 1.489227 4.092709
2026-03-29 0.019566 0.044115 0.099709 0.240627 0.608047 1.570401 4.477017
2026-04-05 0.018341 0.042273 0.097787 0.242281 0.630350 1.680167 4.970034
2026-04-12 0.017403 0.040997 0.097042 0.246811 0.661110 1.818701 5.583195
2026-04-19 0.015750 0.037802 0.091261 0.237393 0.652057 1.843495 5.844631